TX-27 Voter Registration Rate by Precinct

Precinct-level voter registration rates across the 17 counties of Texas Congressional District 27 (PLANC2308)

Summary

Across the 17 counties of Texas Congressional District 27, an estimated 92.1% of eligible citizens (Citizen Voting Age Population, or CVAP) are registered to vote. The district spans 318 election precincts from the Austin suburbs in Travis and Hays counties through the Coastal Bend.

This analysis uses the PLANC2308 congressional redistricting plan adopted by the Texas Legislature in July 2025, which significantly redrew TX-27’s boundaries. Several counties are only partially in the district — notably Hays (51 VTDs), Nueces (34), Travis (25), and Bastrop (26).

Caldwell County has the lowest registration rate in the district at 82.0%, followed by the Nueces County portion at 83.9%.

Note

Registration rates over 100% indicate more registered voters than estimated eligible citizens. This is typically caused by population growth since the 2020 Census (the population denominator is stale) and/or voter roll bloat (people who moved but remain registered). See the methodology page for details.

WarningVTD Boundary Splits

The PLANC2308 district boundary does not perfectly align with 2024 election precinct (VTD) boundaries. Of the 318 VTDs included here, 37 are split by the district line. For those precincts, population and registration figures are scaled proportionally based on the fraction of census-block population (by Voting Age Population) that falls inside the district. The map shows clipped precinct shapes for split VTDs.

Additionally, counties may redraw precinct lines before the next election to align with the new district boundaries, which could change VTD-level numbers.

Interactive Map

Hover over each precinct to see registration details.

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  const L = await require("leaflet@1.9.4");
  const linkEl = html`<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://unpkg.com/leaflet@1.9.4/dist/leaflet.css">`;
  document.head.appendChild(linkEl);

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  const map = L.map("map");
  L.tileLayer("https://{s}.basemaps.cartocdn.com/light_all/{z}/{x}/{y}{r}.png", {
    attribution: '&copy; OpenStreetMap contributors &copy; CARTO',
    maxZoom: 19
  }).addTo(map);

  const response = await fetch("tx27_vtds_v2.geojson");
  const geojson = await response.json();

  function getColor(rate) {
    if (rate === null || rate === undefined) return "#808080";
    const r = Math.min(rate, 1.0);
    if (r < 0.6) return "#d73027";
    if (r < 0.7) return "#fc8d59";
    if (r < 0.8) return "#fee08b";
    if (r < 0.9) return "#d9ef8b";
    if (r < 0.95) return "#91cf60";
    return "#1a9850";
  }

  const layer = L.geoJSON(geojson, {
    style: function(feature) {
      return {
        fillColor: getColor(feature.properties.Reg_Rate),
        weight: 1,
        color: "#333",
        fillOpacity: 0.7
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    },
    onEachFeature: function(feature, layer) {
      const p = feature.properties;
      const rate = p.Reg_Rate ? (p.Reg_Rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%" : "N/A";
      const split = p.Split ? `<br><em>${p.Split}</em>` : "";
      layer.bindTooltip(
        `<strong>${p.County} — Precinct ${p.Precinct}</strong>${split}<br>` +
        `Registered: ${p.Registered?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Est. CVAP: ${p.Est_CVAP?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Rate: <strong>${rate}</strong><br>` +
        `<hr style="margin:4px 0">` +
        `Hispanic Pop: ${p.Hispanic_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Black Pop: ${p.Black_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Anglo Pop: ${p.Anglo_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}`,
        {sticky: true}
      );
    }
  }).addTo(map);

  map.fitBounds(layer.getBounds());
}

County Summary

Counties sorted by registration rate. Counties marked with * are only partially in the district; population figures are proportionally scaled.

County	VTDs	Registered	Est. CVAP	Rate	Est. Unregistered
Caldwell	24	27,170	33,143	82.0%	5,973
Nueces*	34	32,729	39,004	83.9%	6,275
Victoria	35	58,325	65,540	89.0%	7,215
Wharton	12	26,363	29,417	89.6%	3,054
Bastrop*	26	61,003	68,000	89.7%	6,997
Jackson	9	9,926	11,014	90.1%	1,088
Matagorda	18	22,465	24,840	90.4%	2,375
Calhoun	11	13,248	14,519	91.2%	1,271
Washington	19	25,890	27,701	93.5%	1,811
San Patricio*	10	16,370	17,515	93.5%	1,145
Travis*	25	60,272	63,248	95.3%	2,976
Colorado	11	14,850	15,523	95.7%	673
Fayette	12	18,338	18,967	96.7%	629
Hays*	51	100,798	103,907	97.0%	3,109
Austin	15	22,150	21,904	101.1%	—
Aransas*	5	3,920	3,846	101.9%	—
Refugio*	2	582	540	107.8%	—

Where to Focus

The ten precincts with the lowest registration rates (excluding very small precincts with fewer than 50 estimated eligible citizens):

County	Precinct	Rate	Registered	Est. CVAP	Largest Group	Est. Unregistered
Washington	0202	1.6%	4	248	Anglo (166)	244
Travis*	0482	36.2%	475	1,311	Hispanic (1,058)	836
Nueces	0033	43.8%	915	2,089	Hispanic (1,475)	1,174
Caldwell	0111	44.3%	1,478	3,339	Anglo (1,410)	1,861
Nueces	0043	55.7%	540	970	Hispanic (1,082)	430
Jackson	0006	58.0%	732	1,263	Hispanic (672)	531
Bastrop	1006	58.5%	2,969	5,079	Hispanic (4,754)	2,110
Victoria	0031	59.5%	1,318	2,215	Hispanic (1,254)	897
Nueces	0038	61.3%	200	326	Hispanic (175)	126
Caldwell	0405	62.6%	587	938	Anglo (429)	351

These ten precincts alone account for an estimated 8,560 unregistered eligible citizens. Precincts marked with * are split by the district boundary; their figures are proportionally scaled.

Washington County Precinct 0202 stands out at just 1.6% — likely a data anomaly (only 4 registered voters against 248 estimated CVAP). Across the district, the lowest-rate precincts are disproportionately majority-Hispanic, particularly in Nueces, Travis, and Bastrop counties.

Precinct Breakdown

data = FileAttachment("tx27_reg_rate.csv").csv({typed: true})

Inputs.table(data, {
  columns: [
    "County", "Precinct", "Total_Pop_2020", "VAP_2020", "Est_CVAP",
    "Registered", "Reg_Rate",
    "Anglo_Pop", "Hispanic_Pop", "Black_Pop", "Split"
  ],
  header: {
    County: "County",
    Precinct: "Precinct",
    Total_Pop_2020: "Pop (2020)",
    VAP_2020: "VAP (18+)",
    Est_CVAP: "Est. CVAP (Citizens 18+)",
    Registered: "Registered",
    Reg_Rate: "Reg. Rate",
    Anglo_Pop: "Anglo",
    Hispanic_Pop: "Hispanic",
    Black_Pop: "Black",
    Split: "Split"
  },
  format: {
    Reg_Rate: x => x ? (x * 100).toFixed(1) + "%" : "N/A",
    Total_Pop_2020: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    VAP_2020: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Est_CVAP: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Registered: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Anglo_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Hispanic_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Black_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString()
  },
  sort: "Reg_Rate",
  reverse: false
})

Methodology

Registration rate is calculated as:

\[\text{Rate} = \frac{\text{Registered Voters}}{\text{Estimated CVAP}}\]

where CVAP is the Citizen Voting Age Population — the number of U.S. citizens aged 18 and older. Precinct-level CVAP is estimated by disaggregating block-group CVAP from the American Community Survey (ACS) to individual census blocks (proportional to each block’s Voting Age Population), then reaggregating by precinct. A shrinkage technique weighted by margin of error is applied to stabilize estimates with large sampling error.

For precincts split by the district boundary, population and registration figures are scaled proportionally based on the fraction of census-block VAP (Voting Age Population) that falls inside the district polygon.

See the full methodology page for data sources and limitations.

Data Sources

• Voter Registration: Texas Elections Division, 2024 General Election snapshot
• Voting Age Population: Texas Legislative Council, 2024 Voting Tabulation District (VTD) data (2020 Census)
• CVAP: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020-2024 ACS 5-Year CVAP Special Tabulation
• District Boundaries: PLANC2308 congressional redistricting plan, Texas Legislative Council Capitol Data Portal
• VTD Shapefile: Texas Legislative Council, 2024 Voting Tabulation Districts (VTDs_24PG)