HD-17 Voter Registration Rate by Precinct

Precinct-level voter registration rates across the 5 counties of Texas House District 17

Summary

Across the 5 counties of Texas House District 17, an estimated 89.2% of eligible citizens are registered to vote. The district spans 89 election precincts from fast-growing Bastrop County east of Austin to rural Burleson, Lee, and Milam counties.

Caldwell County has the lowest registration rate in the district at 82.0%, while Burleson County’s rate exceeds 100% — likely due to population decline since the 2020 Census leaving stale denominators.

Note

Registration rates over 100% indicate more registered voters than estimated eligible citizens. This is typically caused by population growth since the 2020 Census (the population denominator is stale) and/or voter roll bloat (people who moved but remain registered). See the methodology page for details.

Interactive Map

Hover over each precinct to see registration details.

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  const container = html`<div id="map" style="width:100%; height:600px; border:1px solid #ddd; border-radius:4px;"></div>`;

  const L = await require("leaflet@1.9.4");
  const linkEl = html`<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://unpkg.com/leaflet@1.9.4/dist/leaflet.css">`;
  document.head.appendChild(linkEl);

  yield container;

  const map = L.map("map").setView([30.37, -97.09], 9);
  L.tileLayer("https://{s}.basemaps.cartocdn.com/light_all/{z}/{x}/{y}{r}.png", {
    attribution: '&copy; OpenStreetMap contributors &copy; CARTO',
    maxZoom: 19
  }).addTo(map);

  const response = await fetch("hd17_vtds.geojson");
  const geojson = await response.json();

  function getColor(rate) {
    if (rate === null || rate === undefined) return "#808080";
    const r = Math.min(rate, 1.0);
    if (r < 0.6) return "#d73027";
    if (r < 0.7) return "#fc8d59";
    if (r < 0.8) return "#fee08b";
    if (r < 0.9) return "#d9ef8b";
    if (r < 0.95) return "#91cf60";
    return "#1a9850";
  }

  L.geoJSON(geojson, {
    style: function(feature) {
      return {
        fillColor: getColor(feature.properties.Reg_Rate),
        weight: 1.5,
        color: "#333",
        fillOpacity: 0.7
      };
    },
    onEachFeature: function(feature, layer) {
      const p = feature.properties;
      const rate = p.Reg_Rate ? (p.Reg_Rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%" : "N/A";
      layer.bindTooltip(
        `<strong>${p.County} — Precinct ${p.Precinct}</strong><br>` +
        `Registered: ${p.Registered?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Est. CVAP: ${p.Est_CVAP?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Rate: <strong>${rate}</strong><br>` +
        `<hr style="margin:4px 0">` +
        `Hispanic Pop: ${p.Hispanic_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Black Pop: ${p.Black_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Anglo Pop: ${p.Anglo_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}`,
        {sticky: true}
      );
    }
  }).addTo(map);
}

County Summary

County	VTDs	Registered	Est. CVAP	Rate	Est. Unregistered
Caldwell	24	27,170	33,143	82.0%	5,973
Bastrop	26	61,870	69,021	89.6%	7,151
Milam	11	18,283	20,113	90.4%	1,830
Lee	15	11,433	12,581	91.4%	1,148
Burleson	13	13,692	13,549	101.0%	—

Where to Focus

The ten precincts with the lowest registration rates (excluding very small precincts with fewer than 50 estimated eligible citizens):

County	Precinct	Rate	Registered	Est. CVAP	Largest Group	Est. Unregistered
Lee	0304	18.7%	296	1,582	Anglo (1,583)	1,286
Caldwell	0111	44.3%	1,478	3,339	Anglo (1,410)	1,861
Bastrop	1006	58.5%	2,969	5,079	Hispanic (4,754)	2,110
Caldwell	0405	62.6%	587	938	Anglo (429)	351
Bastrop	4023	66.9%	1,557	2,328	Anglo (1,450)	771
Bastrop	3019	68.1%	3,007	4,413	Hispanic (4,640)	1,406
Lee	0202	71.0%	2,094	2,951	Anglo (1,631)	857
Bastrop	2010	71.1%	712	1,001	Anglo (790)	289
Bastrop	4025	72.3%	2,510	3,470	Hispanic (2,551)	960
Caldwell	0301	74.1%	1,235	1,667	Hispanic (1,053)	432

These ten precincts alone account for an estimated 10,323 unregistered eligible citizens.

Lee County Precinct 0304 stands out at just 18.7% — an estimated 1,286 unregistered citizens. In Bastrop County, the lowest-rate precincts tend to have large Hispanic populations (Precincts 1006, 3019, 4025), suggesting targeted bilingual outreach could be effective.

Precinct Breakdown

data = FileAttachment("hd17_reg_rate.csv").csv({typed: true})

Inputs.table(data, {
  columns: [
    "County", "Precinct", "Total_Pop_2020", "VAP_2020", "Est_CVAP",
    "Registered", "Reg_Rate",
    "Anglo_Pop", "Hispanic_Pop", "Black_Pop"
  ],
  header: {
    County: "County",
    Precinct: "Precinct",
    Total_Pop_2020: "Pop (2020)",
    VAP_2020: "VAP (18+)",
    Est_CVAP: "Est. CVAP (Citizens 18+)",
    Registered: "Registered",
    Reg_Rate: "Reg. Rate",
    Anglo_Pop: "Anglo",
    Hispanic_Pop: "Hispanic",
    Black_Pop: "Black"
  },
  format: {
    Reg_Rate: x => x ? (x * 100).toFixed(1) + "%" : "N/A",
    Total_Pop_2020: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    VAP_2020: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Est_CVAP: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Registered: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Anglo_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Hispanic_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Black_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString()
  },
  sort: "Reg_Rate",
  reverse: false
})

Methodology

Registration rate is calculated as:

\[\text{Rate} = \frac{\text{Registered Voters}}{\text{Estimated CVAP}}\]

where CVAP is the Citizen Voting Age Population — the number of U.S. citizens aged 18 and older. Precinct-level CVAP is estimated by disaggregating block-group CVAP from the American Community Survey (ACS) to individual census blocks (proportional to each block’s Voting Age Population), then reaggregating by precinct. A shrinkage technique weighted by margin of error is applied to stabilize estimates with large sampling error.

See the full methodology page for data sources and limitations.

Data Sources

• Voter Registration: Texas Elections Division, 2024 General Election snapshot
• Voting Age Population: Texas Legislative Council, 2024 Voting Tabulation District (VTD) data (2020 Census)
• CVAP: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020-2024 ACS 5-Year CVAP Special Tabulation